Dollar Falls Sharply on Weak US Unemployment Report
+22,000의 오늘의 Aug 급여 보고서는 +75,000의 합의보다 약했습니다. 지난 3 개월 동안 급여는 월 평균 월별 상승이 +29,000에 불과했습니다. 7 월 급여가 개정되었습니다
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200k+ 가입자 가입자 : 정오 Barchart 간단한 뉴스 레터가 왜 수천 명의 사람들에게 반드시 읽어야하는지 알아보십시오.
8 월 평균 시간당 수입은 +0.3% m/m로 증가했으며, 이는 시장 기대치와 일치했습니다. 긍정적 인 인플레이션 개발에서 8 월 평균 시간당 수입 보고서는 +3.9% y/y로 완화되었습니다.
시장은 현재 50bp의 FOMC 회의에서 50bp의 50 bp 삭감에서 50 bp 삭감의 14% 확률로 가격을 책정하고있다. 시장은 n입니다
EUR/USD (^EURUSD)는 달러 약점에서 +0.72% 증가했습니다. 유로는 또한 시장이 ECB를 비율 컷 주기로 크게 마무리하는 것으로 간주하는 반면, 연준은 금리를 줄일 것으로 예상되는 경우에도 지원을 받고 있습니다.
유로는 7 월 독일 공장 명령이 -2.9% m/m 및 -3.4% y/y 이후 +0.5% m/m 및 -0.6% y/y의 기대치에 비해 저치역이었다.
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지정 학적 전선에서 우크라이나 전쟁을 끝내려는 외교적 노력은 여전히 어려워지며, 이는 유로에 대한 약세입니다. 지난 금요일, 독일 총리 인 Merz와 Macron 프랑스 대통령은 Seco를 요구했습니다.
스왑은 9 월 11 일 정책 회의에서 ECB에 의해 -25 bp 요율 1% 확률로 가격이 책정됩니다.
USD/JPY (^USDJPY)는 주로 달러 약점으로 인해 -0.92%하락합니다. 엔화는 화요일 일본 자유 민주당 사무 총장, 모리야마 히로시, 주요 동맹국이라는 소식을 들었다.
12 월 금 (GCZ25)은 +31.3 ( +0.87%), 12 월 실버 (SIZ25)는 +0.073 ( +0.18%. 귀금 금속 가격이 오늘날 달러 지수에서 급격한 매도로 상승하고 베팅 증가로 증가했습니다.
금 가격은 미국 관세와 지정 학적 위험과 관련된 불확실성으로부터 지속적으로 지원되었습니다. 또한 프랑스에 이어 프랑스의 정치적 불확실성은 금고 자산으로 금에 대한 수요를 주도하고 있습니다.
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귀금속 가격은 귀금속 ETF의 기금 구매로부터 지속적인 지원을 받았습니다. ETF의 골드 홀딩스는 화요일에 2 년 높이로 상승했으며 ETF의 은색 홀딩스는 3 년 동안 상승했습니다.
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The dollar index (DXY00) today is sharply lower by -0.75% on the weak US unemployment report and the increased expectations for Fed easing through year-end. The dollar was also undercut by the sharp -8 bp decline in the 10-year T-note yield, which undercut the dollar’s interest rate differentials. The 2-year T-note yield fell by an even larger -12 bp to 3.47%.
Today’s Aug payroll report of +22,000 was weaker than the consensus of +75,000. Over the past three months, payrolls have shown an average monthly rise of only +29,000. July payrolls were revised slightly higher to +79,000 from +73,000, but June was revised lower to a decline of -13,000. Aug private payrolls rose by only +38,000 while manufacturing payrolls fell by -12,000. The Aug unemployment rate rose by +0.1 point to a 3.75-year high of 4.3%, up from +4.2% in July, which was in line with market expectations.
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Aug average hourly earnings rose by +0.3% m/m, which was in line with market expectations. In a positive inflation development, the Aug average hourly earnings report eased to +3.7% y/y from +3.9% in July and was slightly weaker than expectations of +3.8%.
The markets are now pricing in a 14% chance of a 50 bp rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on Sep 16-17, versus the previous expectations of a zero chance of that 50 bp rate cut. The markets are now discounting a 93% chance of a second -25 bp rate cut at the Oct 28-29 meeting, up from a 54% chance as of late Thursday. The markets are now pricing in an overall -75 bp rate cut in the federal funds rate by year-end to 3.63% from the current 4.38% rate.
EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up by +0.72% on dollar weakness. The euro is also seeing support as the markets view the ECB as largely finished with its rate-cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to cut rates three times by the end of this year.
The euro was undercut after July German factory orders fell -2.9% m/m and -3.4% y/y, versus expectations of +0.5% m/m and -0.6% y/y.
On the geopolitical front, diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine remain elusive, which is bearish for the euro. Last Friday, German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron called for secondary sanctions on Russia for its war in Ukraine and said they will push for measures targeting “companies from third countries that support Russia’s war.” Last Thursday, German Chancellor Merz stated that a meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky is unlikely to take place.
Swaps are pricing in a 1% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.
USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.92%, mainly due to dollar weakness. The yen was undercut on Tuesday by news that the Secretary General of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, Hiroshi Moriyama, a key ally of Prime Minister Ishiba and a proponent of fiscal discipline, is stepping down, which is seen as paving the way toward a more expansionary fiscal policy.
December gold (GCZ25) is up +31.3 (+0.87%), and December silver (SIZ25) is up +0.073 (+0.18%. Precious metal prices rallied on today’s sharp sell-off in the dollar index and on increased bets for Fed easing through year-end. Silver underperformed gold on concern about industrial metals demand, with today’s US unemployment report suggesting a slowing economy.
Gold prices have continued support from uncertainty tied to US tariffs and geopolitical risks. Also, political uncertainty in France is driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, following French Prime Minister Bayrou’s call for a confidence vote that could bring down his government as soon as next week.
Precious metals prices have continued support from fund buying of precious metal ETFs. Gold holdings in ETFs rose to a 2-year high on Tuesday, and silver holdings in ETFs rose to a 3-year high on Wednesday.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.