Stocks Lower after Weak US Unemployment Report
오늘날의 약한 미국 급여 보고서 이후 주식은 낮아서 연말까지 최소 2 번의 연준 금리 인하에 대한 시장 기대치를 강화했습니다. 그러나 실업 보고서는 또한 미국 EC 속도가 느려 졌다고 제안했다
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200k+ 가입자 가입자 : 정오 Barchart 간단한 뉴스 레터가 왜 수천 명의 사람들에게 반드시 읽어야하는지 알아보십시오.
+22,000의 오늘의 Aug 급여 보고서는 +75,000의 합의보다 약했습니다. 지난 3 개월 동안 급여는 월 평균 월별 상승이 +29,000에 불과했습니다. 7 월 급여가 개정되었습니다
8 월 평균 시간당 수입은 +0.3% m/m로 증가했으며, 이는 시장 기대치와 일치했습니다. 긍정적 인 인플레이션 개발에서 8 월 평균 시간당 수입 보고서는 +3.9% y/y로 완화되었습니다.
미국 노동 통계국은 제 시간에 실업 보고서를 발표했지만 보고서 이전에 일부 데이터가 지연 될 수있는 기술적 어려움을 겪고 있다고 발표했다.
미국 실업 보고서에서 10 년 T- 노트 수익률이 -8 bp 하락함에 따라 주식은 오늘 지원을 받았습니다. 시장은 현재 다가오는 FOMC 회의에서 SE에서 50 bp 율을 17% 확률로 가격으로 가격을 책정하고 있습니다.
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관세와 관련하여, 연방 항소 법원은 지난 금요일 늦게 트럼프 대통령이 의회 승인없이 전세계 관세를 부과함으로써 그의 권한을 초과했다고 판결했지만 법원은 관세를 허용했습니다.
오늘날 해외 주식 시장은 더 높습니다. Euro Stoxx 50은 +0.23%증가했습니다. 중국의 상하이 복합재는 +1.24%를 닫아 3 번 세션을 잃어 버렸다. 일본의 Nikkei Stock 225 폐쇄 +
이자율
12 월 10 일 T-Notes (ZnZ5)는 +21 진드기입니다. 10 년 T- 노트 수율은 4.076%에서 -8.5 bp 하락하고 5 개월 최저치를 기록했습니다. 약한 미국 실업 보고서와 숫자에 대한 T- 노트 가격
오늘날의 T- 노트 가격은 노동 시장 약화에 의해 주도되고 있으며 당분간 트럼프 대통령의 연준 총재 쿡을 해고하려는 트럼프 대통령의 독립에 대한 우려는 당분간 무시하고 있습니다.
유럽 정부 채권 수익률은 낮습니다. 10 년 독일 번드 수확량은 -5.3 bp 하락한 2.666%입니다. 10 년 영국 금박 수율은 4.656%에서 -6.4 bp 하락했습니다.
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스왑은 9 월 11 일 정책 회의에서 ECB의 -25 bp 요율에 대해 1%의 기회를 할인하고 있습니다.
미국 주식 이동자
오늘날의 웅장한 7 개 주식은 혼합되어 있으며 4 개의 주식은 상승하지만 3 개의 거래는 더 낮습니다. Tesla (TSLA)
Crypto 주식은 약한 급여 보고서에서 Bitcoin (^BTCUSD)의 집회 +2.3%와 Fed Easing에 대한 기대 증가로 인해 오늘 더 높습니다. 폭동 플랫폼 (Riot)은 +3%이상 증가했습니다. Mara Holdi
10 년 T- 노트 수익률이 5 개월 최저치로 떨어진 후 주택 건축업자들은 모기지 금리와 주택 수요에 대한 낙관적 요인으로 상승했습니다. Pultegroup (PHM), Toll Brothers (Tol), Lennar (Len) 및 Horton 박사
Broadcom (AVGO)은 NVIDIA의 거점을 대체하려는 새로운 AI 칩을 설계하고 생산하기 위해 OpenAI와의 계약에서 +11% 이상 증가했습니다. 칩 스톡은 일반적으로 강력하며
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Lululemon Athletica (Lulu)는 약한 소비자 환경 및 관세로 인해 안내를 줄인 후 -16% 이상 감소했습니다.
수입 보고서 (9/5/2025)
ABM Industries Inc (ABM), C & F Financial Corp (CFFI), Ermenegildo Zegna NV (ZGN), Kalvista Pharmaceuticals Inc (Kalv), Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX), National Beverage (Fizz), Pathward Financial In In.
발행일 기준으로 리치 애스플런드는 이 기사에서 언급된 어떤 증권에도 직간접적으로 포지션을 보유하고 있지 않았습니다. 이 기사의 모든 정보와 데이터는 오로지 정보 제공을 위한 것입니다. 자세한 내용은 여기에서 Barchart 공개 정책을 확인하시기 바랍니다.
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.40%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.49%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.14%.
Stocks are lower after today’s weak US payroll report, which solidified market expectations for at least two Fed rate cuts by year-end. However, the unemployment report also suggested slower US economic growth, which would be negative for US corporate earnings.
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Today’s Aug payroll report of +22,000 was weaker than the consensus of +75,000. Over the past three months, payrolls have shown an average monthly rise of only +29,000. July payrolls were revised slightly higher to +79,000 from +73,000, but June was revised lower to a decline of -13,000. Aug private payrolls rose by only +38,000 while manufacturing payrolls fell by -12,000. The Aug unemployment rate rose by +0.1 point to a 3.75-year high of 4.3%, up from +4.2% in July, which was in line with market expectations.
Aug average hourly earnings rose by +0.3% m/m, which was in line with market expectations. In a positive inflation development, the Aug average hourly earnings report eased to +3.7% y/y from +3.9% in July and was slightly weaker than expectations of +3.8%.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the unemployment report on time, but announced before the report that it was experiencing technical difficulties that might cause some data to be delayed.
Stocks received support today as the 10-year T-note yield fell -8 bp on the US unemployment report. The markets are now pricing in a 17% chance of a 50 bp rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on Sep 16-17, versus the previous expectations of a zero chance of that 50 bp rate cut. The markets are now discounting a 96% chance of a second -25 bp rate cut at the Oct 28-29 meeting, up from a 54% chance as of late Thursday. The markets are now pricing in an overall -75 bp rate cut in the federal funds rate by year-end to 3.63% from the current 4.38% rate.
Regarding tariffs, a federal appeals court ruled late last Friday that President Trump exceeded his authority by imposing global tariffs without Congressional approval, but the court let the tariffs remain in place while appeals continue. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit Court said, “The statute bestows significant authority on the President to undertake a number of actions in response to a declared national emergency, but none of these actions explicitly include the power to impose tariffs, duties, or the like, or the power to tax.” The case now appears to be headed to the Supreme Court for a final decision. According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced.
Overseas stock markets today are higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.23%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +1.24%, snapping a 3-session losing streak. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.03%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) are up +21 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -8.5 bp at 4.076% and posted a 5-month low. T-note prices rallied on the weak US unemployment report and the increased chances for Fed easing. T-note prices are also seeing support from today’s -2.8 bp decline to 2.362% in the 10-year inflation expectations rate, driven by the weak unemployment report and today’s -2% decline in crude oil prices.
T-note prices today are being driven by the weaker labor market and are ignoring, for the time being, concerns about Fed independence sparked by President Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook and by Stephen Miran’s intention to be a Fed Governor while still technically holding his White House job on the Council of Economic Advisors.
European government bond yields are lower. The 10-year German bund yield is down -5.3 bp to 2.666%. 10-year UK gilt yield is down -6.4 bp at 4.656%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 1% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven stocks today are mixed, with four stocks trading higher but three trading lower. Tesla (TSLA) is leading the pack with a +3.7% gain after announcing a pay deal for Elon Musk potentially worth as much as $1 trillion to entice him to work at Tesla and meet aggressive targets. Apple (AAPL) is trading slightly higher after news that its annual fiscal sales in India hit a record of nearly $9 billion. Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) are down more than -1%.
Crypto stocks are higher today due to Bitcoin’s (^BTCUSD) rally of +2.3% on the weak payroll report and increased expectations for Fed easing. Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +3%, MARA Holdings (MARA) is up more than +2%, and Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +1%. Coinbase (COIN) is up +0.3%.
Homebuilders climbed after the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 5-month low, a bullish factor for mortgage rates and housing demand. PulteGroup (PHM), Toll Brothers (TOL), Lennar (LEN), and DR Horton (DHI) are all up more than +2%.
Broadcom (AVGO) is up more than +11% on an agreement with OpenAI to design and produce a new AI chip, seeking to displace Nvidia’s stronghold. Chip stocks are strong in general today, with gains of more than +2% in ASML (ASML), Micron (MU), and GlobalFoundries (GFS).
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is down more than -16% after reducing its guidance due to a weak consumer environment and tariffs.
Earnings Reports(9/5/2025)
ABM Industries Inc (ABM), C&F Financial Corp (CFFI), Ermenegildo Zegna NV (ZGN), KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc (KALV), Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX), National Beverage Corp (FIZZ), Pathward Financial Inc (CASH), Pro-Dex Inc (PDEX).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.