모델 기반 오일 예측이 계속해서 마크를 놓치는 이유
지난주 석유 상인들은 16 년 동안 가장 낮은 수준으로 강세를 줄였습니다. 많은 예측 자들이 담당자 였기 때문에 대부분
Why Model-Based Oil Forecasts Keep Missing the Mark
Last week, oil traders cut their bullish bets on crude to the lowest in 16 years on expectations of a glut. Mostly because many forecasters were reporting a looming glut. Yet the moment something threatens any portion of the world’s oil supply, prices jump. So, where’s the glut? Mostly, the glut is in the forecasts published by the International Energy Agency and various net-zero organizations. The problem with these forecasts is that they often ignore data that contradicts their message that the transition to net zero is advancing.…