Dollar Tumbles and Gold Jumps as Powell Opens Door to Fed Rate Cuts
Fed Chair Powell은 “실업률 및 기타 노동 시장 조치의 안정성을 통해 정책 입장에 대한 변화를 고려할 때 신중하게 진행할 수 있습니다. 그럼에도 불구하고 정책과 함께
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보스턴 연준 수잔 콜린스 대통령은 미국 경제 성장이 둔화되고 있지만 인플레이션에 대한 상향 위험과 노동에 대한 하락 위험이 있음을 알면서 전반적인 경제 기초는 견고하다고 말했다. 그녀는 그 f를 덧붙였다
연방 기금 선물 가격은 9 월 16-17 일 FOMC 회의에서 90%로 -25 BP 요율을 줄이고 10 월 28 일 다음 회의에서 25bp 삭감의 55%를 할인했습니다.
EUR/USD (^EURUSD) 오늘은 +0.73%증가했습니다. 유로는 오늘 2 주 최저에서 회복되었고 Fed Chair Powell의 비둘기 의견에 달러가 약해짐에 따라 더 높은 총격 을가했습니다. 유로는 처음에 더 낮게 움직였습니다
독일어 Q2 GDP는 이전에보고 된 -0.1% Q/Q 및 변하지 않은 Y/Y로부터 -0.3% Q/Q 및 -0.2% y/y로 수정되었다.
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Vance 미국 부통령은 지정 학적 전선에서 우크라이나에서 러시아의 전쟁 종식에 대한 협상은 우크라이나와 영토 러시아가 통제하고자하는 보안 보장에 중점을두고 있다고 말했다.
스왑은 9 월 11 일 정책 회의에서 ECB가 -25 bp rate의 2% 확률로 가격으로 가격을 책정합니다.
USD/JPY (^USDJPY)는 오늘 -0.87%감소했습니다. 엔화는 오늘 달러 대비 3 주 최저에서 반등했으며 T-Note 수확량이 Fed Chair Powell의 도전에 대한 논평으로 넘어짐에 따라 더 높아졌습니다. 엔
일본의 7 월 National CPI는 Jun의 +3.3% y/y에서 +3.1% y/y로 완화되었으며, 예상대로 바로 예상되었습니다. JUL National CPI Ex-Fresh Food and Energy는 6 월에서 +3.4% y/y에서 예상대로 변경되지 않았습니다.
12 월 금 (GCZ25)은 오늘은 +22.90 ( +0.68%), 9 월은 (SIU25)은 +0.461 ( +1.21%) 증가했습니다. 귀금속 가격은 오늘 초기 손실에서 회복되었고 더 높은 이동,은 가격 CL
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귀금 금속 가격은 오늘날 달러 지수가 1.5 주 높이로 상승한 후 처음으로 낮게 이동했습니다. 독일어 Q2 GDP가 더 낮아진 후은 가격이 초기 압력을 받고 있었는데
귀금속의 펀드 구매는 지난 금요일 ETF의 금 보유가 2 년 높이 올라간 후에도 가격을 계속 지원하고 있으며 ETF의 은색 보유는 화요일에 3 년 최고치에 도달했습니다.
발행일 기준으로 리치 애스플런드는 이 기사에서 언급된 어떤 증권에도 직간접적으로 포지션을 보유하고 있지 않았습니다. 이 기사의 모든 정보와 데이터는 오로지 정보 제공을 위한 것입니다. 자세한 내용은 여기에서 Barchart 공개 정책을 확인하시기 바랍니다.
The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.57%. The dollar fell from a 1.5-week high today and turned lower on dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, who said downside risks to employment are rising and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting monetary policy. Falling T-note yields today are also weighing on the dollar after the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low of 4.248%. The dollar initially moved higher today on hawkish comments from Boston Fed President Susan Collins, who said that modestly restrictive Fed policy is appropriate.
Fed Chair Powell said, “The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”
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Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, US economic growth is slowing, but overall economic fundamentals are solid as she sees upside risks to inflation and downside risks to labor. She added that Fed policy is modestly restrictive, which is appropriate.
Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 90% at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and at 55% for a second -25 bp rate cut at the following meeting on October 28-29.
EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is up by +0.73%. The euro today recovered from a 2-week low and shot higher as the dollar weakened on dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell. The euro initially moved lower today on growth concerns for the Eurozone after German Q2 GDP was revised lower. Also, doubts about an imminent end to the Russian-Ukrainian war are negative for the euro.
German Q2 GDP was revised lower to -0.3% q/q and -0.2% y/y from the previously reported -0.1% q/q and unchanged y/y.
On the geopolitical front, US Vice President Vance said negotiations over ending Russia’s war in Ukraine are focused on security guarantees for Ukraine and territory Russia wants to control, including Ukrainian territory that it currently isn’t occupying, as the US tries to broker a peace deal between the two countries. The US is working to set up a meeting between President Putin and Zelensky, and if that meeting goes well, President Trump said he’ll look to follow up with a trilateral summit with the leaders. The outcome could have macroeconomic implications regarding tariffs and oil prices, and could, of course, have significant consequences for European security.
Swaps are pricing in a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.
USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is down by -0.87%. The yen rebounded from a 3-week low against the dollar today and moved higher as T-note yields tumbled on dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell. The yen also found support from higher Japanese government bond yields after the 10-year JGB bond yield climbed to a 16-year high today of 1.627%, which strengthened the yen’s interest rate differentials. The yen initially moved lower today on moderation in Japanese consumer prices, which is dovish for BOJ policy after the July national CPI eased as expected.
Japan’s Jul national CPI eased to +3.1% y/y from +3.3% y/y in Jun, right on expectations. Jul national CPI ex-fresh food and energy was unchanged from Jun at +3.4% y/y, right on expectations.
December gold (GCZ25) today is up +22.90 (+0.68%), and September silver (SIU25) is up +0.461 (+1.21%). Precious metal prices recovered from early losses today and moved higher, with silver prices climbing to a 1-week high. Precious metals turned higher today after the dollar and T-note yields tumbled on dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell. Precious metals continue to see safe-haven demand driven by US political uncertainty and concerns over Fed independence, following President Trump’s call for Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign amid allegations of mortgage fraud. Gold continues to have safe-haven support related to US tariffs and geopolitical risks, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Precious metals prices today initially moved lower after the dollar index rose to a 1.5-week high. Silver prices were also under early pressure today after German Q2 GDP was revised lower, a negative factor for industrial metals demand.
Fund buying of precious metals continues to support prices after gold holdings in ETFs rose to a 2-year high last Friday, and silver holdings in ETFs reached a 3-year high on Tuesday.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.